It’s been a while since I discussed Surgepays (see here and here), and the recent Q3 results as well as my recent chat with the CEO are a good opportunity to provide an update about the company.Thanks for reading ToffCap! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Any thoughts on trading the possible ACP renewal? 227 cosponsors (up 2 since yesterday) both Democrats and Republicans. Last price for the Aug calls @ 5 for $0.37, or @ 2.5 for $1.35.
Yes, it’s definitely on the list. They should have a pretty substantial b/s (>50% of market cap in cash) which should help as a base, and potential renewal might be a nice trigger. Might be a nice option
>50% of market cap in cash? Even if you include accounts receivable that only gets me to $24.1mil vs market cap of $55.5mil. But yeah I don't think it'd be unrealistic for the stock to jump to $6-7 on the news.
Roughly a month ago they stated to have >$40m in cash. Incl the raise and warrants conversion + pretty high working capital releases (no need to reinvest in growing ACP subs) that number makes sense. But of course they'll need to reinvest a lot should the ACP program be renewed
Just saw this, good article on the discharge petition. They need 5 Republicans to vote for the bill, and usually takes them 30 legislative days until they vote. From what I can tell the market is pricing in about 25% chance of it going through.
Once bitten, twice shy. A lesson in doing my DD on the CEO properly for me. Too many contingent factors for this to be anything other than an 'option' (and hence very small) trade
I traded SURG and made some money when they first announced some big numbers based on ACP. The CEO issue has kept me away. It’s not completely fair as he may very well be innocent, but there is a meaningful probability he l isn’t. Also in my one brief interaction with him he doesn’t have that mature CEO/leader vibe.
Hey ToffCap,
Any thoughts on trading the possible ACP renewal? 227 cosponsors (up 2 since yesterday) both Democrats and Republicans. Last price for the Aug calls @ 5 for $0.37, or @ 2.5 for $1.35.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/6929
Yes, it’s definitely on the list. They should have a pretty substantial b/s (>50% of market cap in cash) which should help as a base, and potential renewal might be a nice trigger. Might be a nice option
>50% of market cap in cash? Even if you include accounts receivable that only gets me to $24.1mil vs market cap of $55.5mil. But yeah I don't think it'd be unrealistic for the stock to jump to $6-7 on the news.
Roughly a month ago they stated to have >$40m in cash. Incl the raise and warrants conversion + pretty high working capital releases (no need to reinvest in growing ACP subs) that number makes sense. But of course they'll need to reinvest a lot should the ACP program be renewed
Just saw this, good article on the discharge petition. They need 5 Republicans to vote for the bill, and usually takes them 30 legislative days until they vote. From what I can tell the market is pricing in about 25% chance of it going through.
https://broadbandbreakfast.com/discharge-petition-on-fate-of-7-billion-acp-now-active/
Oh yep, I overlooked that... definitely a good backstop. Thanks Toff.
Cosponsors at 228 now... not sure on a timeline for Bills to be passed, but I'm watching the Nov calls now. Could be a wait.
Once bitten, twice shy. A lesson in doing my DD on the CEO properly for me. Too many contingent factors for this to be anything other than an 'option' (and hence very small) trade
Seems he structured the trade the same way
Yeah mate, Toff sent me a DM after we had a chat on X telling me that's what he did, bloody shame I didn't do the same thing but we live and learn! 😬🤣
I traded SURG and made some money when they first announced some big numbers based on ACP. The CEO issue has kept me away. It’s not completely fair as he may very well be innocent, but there is a meaningful probability he l isn’t. Also in my one brief interaction with him he doesn’t have that mature CEO/leader vibe.