- MKFG/NNDM received a request from CFIUS to file a full notice, which adds 45 days for review from filing (MKFG has US government/defence customers);
- Activist Murchinson's nominees won seats on NNDM's Board and the CEO was removed from it. Murchinson specifically opposes the acquisitions of DM and MKFG, although it is to be seen whether they are able to frustrate the deals at this stage.
overall the governance situation at Nano is very spicy. The activist now controls 4 of 8 board seats, and has an impressive grab-bag of complaints against the CEO (who is clinging on despite having been 'removed' multiple times?). It all seems poised to go sideways, IMO the discount is more than justified
More than by Gentoo's undervaluation I am more and more intrigued by the undervaluation of its smaller (and so far, uglier) turnaround-in-waiting brother, GIG Software plc. Sticky recurrent revenues, where the mngmt is guiding to EUR 40m sales and EUR 10m EBITDA in 2025, saying that 90% of those revs have already been contracted by now so it's more or less a done deal. At EUR 30m market cap and EUR 10m cash position, no debt (courtesy of spin-off accounting, thank you Gentoo), they will come out of the gate charging before anyone even notices that sticky SAAS-like revenues can be had for EV/EBITDA multiple of 2 here. Anemic trading volumes and confusion with listings / tickers (SDRs vs non-tradeable NDRs) didn't help the investment story here but when you pop the hood and look at the cards you've been dealt by the spin-off it's quite something.
Just a clarification to my yesterday post , that the MC is actually higher, at EUR 50m, OS count is 134m, though some (many) websites list only 80m, so that's why I had this wrong. That means next year's EV/EBITDA is 4. You be the judge whether that is expensive or not
No opinion (yet) on potential outcome Antonio. We flagged this one given the different parts which seem to be moving, and upcoming deadline, but haven't done the full works on it
This is great! Thanks for the work.
Some crucial details on Markforged (MKFG):
- MKFG/NNDM received a request from CFIUS to file a full notice, which adds 45 days for review from filing (MKFG has US government/defence customers);
- Activist Murchinson's nominees won seats on NNDM's Board and the CEO was removed from it. Murchinson specifically opposes the acquisitions of DM and MKFG, although it is to be seen whether they are able to frustrate the deals at this stage.
overall the governance situation at Nano is very spicy. The activist now controls 4 of 8 board seats, and has an impressive grab-bag of complaints against the CEO (who is clinging on despite having been 'removed' multiple times?). It all seems poised to go sideways, IMO the discount is more than justified
Keep in mind that WH Group (288.HK) shareholders are not going to receive any Smithfield shares in the planned spin-off. I've discussed it here:
https://x.com/WimalSamara/status/1866429312297247030
More than by Gentoo's undervaluation I am more and more intrigued by the undervaluation of its smaller (and so far, uglier) turnaround-in-waiting brother, GIG Software plc. Sticky recurrent revenues, where the mngmt is guiding to EUR 40m sales and EUR 10m EBITDA in 2025, saying that 90% of those revs have already been contracted by now so it's more or less a done deal. At EUR 30m market cap and EUR 10m cash position, no debt (courtesy of spin-off accounting, thank you Gentoo), they will come out of the gate charging before anyone even notices that sticky SAAS-like revenues can be had for EV/EBITDA multiple of 2 here. Anemic trading volumes and confusion with listings / tickers (SDRs vs non-tradeable NDRs) didn't help the investment story here but when you pop the hood and look at the cards you've been dealt by the spin-off it's quite something.
Just a clarification to my yesterday post , that the MC is actually higher, at EUR 50m, OS count is 134m, though some (many) websites list only 80m, so that's why I had this wrong. That means next year's EV/EBITDA is 4. You be the judge whether that is expensive or not
Agreed CA!
I never miss your publication on Monday, which adds great value to me as an investor and always presents very interesting situations. Doubt:
LTRPA - Crimson continues to buy a LOT in the open market, and has recently disclosed its now at roughly 22%. Who is Crimson?
This situation has so far caused me a huge loss because I bet on a sale of the company (TRIP) that has not materialized so far.
Something will have to happen by March. How do you think this will end?
No opinion (yet) on potential outcome Antonio. We flagged this one given the different parts which seem to be moving, and upcoming deadline, but haven't done the full works on it
Thanks. You mention Crimson. Who is he?