Belgian Post looks wild, thanks for that idea. Still very early in my research, but - latest guidance from 3 July is for EBIT of 165-185m Plus EUR 100m annually from Staci. So we are talking EUR 265-285m annual EBIT company trading for MC of EUR 530m? Of course, Staci acquisition will add EUR 40-50m worth of interest costs from the additional financing so at net income it won't be that rosy, but still - this looks too cheap.
It has all the ingredients of a classic European value trap, but I am definitely putting it on my watchlist!
Mobico in the UK could be interesting- been a disaster but US business up for sale and the Spanish family who are main shareholders have bought more (no idea how that purchase works from regulatory perspective given on going disposal discussions)
Clearly ton of risk in it given leverage so do your own work and definitely not investing advice
Wetouch Tech (WETH US) brought my atention. It looks very interesting company. I deeped into this case. They issued shares in IPO at 5 usd and now buy at 2usd!! that sounds strange.
This chinese company mentions that all its 90MM usd net cash is in Chinese banks. US shareholders own nothing of that.......
That is indeed often the case with these Chinese US listed companies. Hence the large discount. BUT, there are cases where things change and capital is released. That's why we tend to keep an eye on them
Dear ToffCap, it´s surprising WETH anounce such a big buyback and shares do not stop falling, from 2,4 to 1,72. we can see there is no interest in buying for now....
Do you know how wecan check the amount of buybacks? rgds
I believe the compelling case for CEV is the downside risk, which is fairly mitigated. That would perhaps not make it the best IRR given 6-18 months, but certainly good from an opportunity cost
I've seen investors holding that bag for ~1-2 years being in agony, trying to predict the CEO's actions, while he is trying to play mental games with them, to make them sell at depressed prices. I don't think return on brain damage is worth it here.
Belgian Post looks wild, thanks for that idea. Still very early in my research, but - latest guidance from 3 July is for EBIT of 165-185m Plus EUR 100m annually from Staci. So we are talking EUR 265-285m annual EBIT company trading for MC of EUR 530m? Of course, Staci acquisition will add EUR 40-50m worth of interest costs from the additional financing so at net income it won't be that rosy, but still - this looks too cheap.
It has all the ingredients of a classic European value trap, but I am definitely putting it on my watchlist!
Thanks for the great coverage!
Great publication, as always.
Mobico in the UK could be interesting- been a disaster but US business up for sale and the Spanish family who are main shareholders have bought more (no idea how that purchase works from regulatory perspective given on going disposal discussions)
Clearly ton of risk in it given leverage so do your own work and definitely not investing advice
Thanks for the report once again. Excellent. !!
Wetouch Tech (WETH US) brought my atention. It looks very interesting company. I deeped into this case. They issued shares in IPO at 5 usd and now buy at 2usd!! that sounds strange.
This chinese company mentions that all its 90MM usd net cash is in Chinese banks. US shareholders own nothing of that.......
That is indeed often the case with these Chinese US listed companies. Hence the large discount. BUT, there are cases where things change and capital is released. That's why we tend to keep an eye on them
Dear ToffCap, it´s surprising WETH anounce such a big buyback and shares do not stop falling, from 2,4 to 1,72. we can see there is no interest in buying for now....
Do you know how wecan check the amount of buybacks? rgds
A word of caution with Centrotec (CEV Germany), the squeeze out could take another year or longer. Opportunity cost might be too expensive.
I believe the compelling case for CEV is the downside risk, which is fairly mitigated. That would perhaps not make it the best IRR given 6-18 months, but certainly good from an opportunity cost
I've seen investors holding that bag for ~1-2 years being in agony, trying to predict the CEO's actions, while he is trying to play mental games with them, to make them sell at depressed prices. I don't think return on brain damage is worth it here.